Analyse/iShares MSCI EMU

Dieser ETF eignet sich für Anleger, die auf einen endgültigen Aufstieg der Eurozone aus der Krise bauen. Hohes Gewicht von Frankreich- und Deutschland-Aktien. 

Rolle im Portfolio

The iShares MSCI EMU UCITS ETF offers broad-basket equity exposure to large and mid-cap companies domiciled within the European Monetary Union (EMU). Due to its broad sector and geographic equity exposure, this ETF can be utilised as a core holding in a diversified portfolio. The exclusion of non-EMU stocks from the benchmark index – most prominently UK and Swiss stocks - increases its sector concentration compared to broader European indices such as the STOXX Europe 600. More specifically, the MSCI EMU overweights consumer cyclicals, technology, and utilities and underweights consumer defensives and healthcare compared to the STOXX Europe 600. Despite these differences in country and sector exposure, the two indices have maintained nearly perfect positive correlation over the past 10 years (96% to 99%). Over the same timeframe, the MSCI EMU index has also exhibited a high historical correlation (82% to 85%) with the MSCI World NR index, which reflects the multinational nature of the business lines of many of the companies making the index. With this in mind, this ETF is unlikely to provide dramatic diversification benefits when added to wider global stock exposure.

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Fundamentale Analyse

Following years of uncertainty and market stress, the Eurozone is showing signs of recovery. After six consecutive quarters of output falls, GDP has linked three consecutive quarters of mild growth out to end 2013. However, year-on-year real GDP growth in 2013 was still negative, lagging the USA, Japan and the United Kingdom who all registered growth over the same period. The road to recovery has been slow, but recently released figures show growth in retail trade volumes and industrial production in 2013, with the beleaguered periphery also reporting positive readings. Aided by active monetary support from the European Central Bank (ECB), fears of a Eurozone break-up following the severe market tensions experienced in 2011 and 2012 have receded. The Bank has cut short–term rates to a historically low 0.25%, while explicitly signalling its intention to maintain, or even lower, these for an “extended period of time”. This is entirely dependent on the outlook for price stability, which remains the ECB’s one and only policy objective. However, with inflation levels hovering well below target, and deflation a credible outcome, it is unlikely that rates will be raised anytime soon. As part of its focus on financial stability, the ECB also routinely provides ample liquidity at very favourable terms to the Eurozone banking sector. This, coupled with low lending rates across the developed world and rising investor confidence, has fuelled impressive stock market gains. The MSCI EMU NR Index, for example, has delivered an annualised return of 15% over the past five years. Almost a quarter of the reference index exposure comes from the European financial sector. Financials occupy the riskier end of the equity risk/return spectrum, and exhibit high levels of volatility when compared with the broader equity market. Since 1999, the MSCI Europe Financials Net Return Index has exhibited a significantly larger standard deviation (27%) than its parent the MSCI Europe Net Return Index (16%). The regulatory shake-up and related restructuring within the banking sector following the crash of 2008 has contributed to the sector’s relatively muted recovery. Financial institutions have been undertaking the painful and costly task of deleveraging and increasing the quality and quantity of their capital holdings in accordance with Basel III, which is currently in its implementation stage. Concurrently, 124 European banks have been working with the ECB and the European Banking Authority (EBA) to conduct asset quality reviews prior to extensive stress tests scheduled to be run from 2014 to 2016. Further regulation, in the form of the European Commission’s proposed financial transaction tax, or changes to trade valuation procedures suggested by the Basel Committee, if implemented could significantly impact formerly profitable businesses such as proprietary trading. Consequently, the European banking landscape remains deeply uncertain, with so many of the finer details yet to be finalised, the impact of these regulatory measures is yet to be fully understood.

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Über den Autor

Morningstar ETF Analysts  research hundreds of ETFs available to European investors. The Morningstar Rating for ETFs is based on a risk-adjusted performance measure

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