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Analyse: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets UCITS ETF

Das Wachstum der Ökonomien der Schwellenländer ist überdurchschnittliche, die Performance der Aktienmärkte nicht. Nachholbedarf kontra Unsicherheit, oder: Wann folgt der Hund wieder dem Herrchen? 

Alastair Kellett 05.07.2013

Rolle im Portfolio

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets UCITS ETF provides exposure to a wide array of mid- and large-cap companies within the world’s emerging regions. This broad category of countries has seen its importance on the global stage rise dramatically in recent years. Whereas this type of exposure would once have been considered only as a speculative tactical tool, it is increasingly becoming a core component of a globally balanced portfolio. That said, this can be a volatile area of the market. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has had annual standard deviation of 18.8% for the past 10 years, versus 14.0% for the MSCI World. Its correlation to other equity exposures does suggest some benefit as a diversifier. Over the same period it has shown correlation to the local-currency returns of the S&P 500, the MSCI Europe, and the broader MSCI World Index of 77%, 80%, and 83%, respectively. Some of that benefit, however, has shrunk in recent years. The corresponding five-year correlations are 85%, 85%, and 88%. The fund does not make any distributions; hence is may not suit an investor looking for income.

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Fundamentale Analyse

Even as developed markets have slowed down amidst consumer and government deleveraging, much of the developing world has continued to exhibit somewhat stronger growth. As the group’s largest economy, and the biggest weighting in the index, China will have a considerable impact on the fortunes of the MSCI Emerging Markets Index. The Chinese economy continues to post strong growth numbers, but against a backdrop of sky-high expectations, opinion remains divided on when the country’s prospects will descend back down to earth and whether the landing will be hard or soft. The first quarter’s GDP release, which showed growth for the prior 12 months of 7.7%, was high relative to what most of the world is experiencing, but fell short of expectations. As the beleaguered developed-world consumer continues to pare back, China will have to rely more and more on domestic demand from its own burgeoning middle class. Another area for concern is China’s swiftly rising housing market. To cool things down, the government has enacted higher down payment requirements and higher mortgage rates for purchases of second homes. A correction in the housing market could hurt the financial sector, as real estate is typically used as collateral for bank loans. The economy of South Korea has grown dramatically in the past few decades. According to The Economist, it now boasts a GDP per head that is higher than the European Union average. Although still classified as an emerging market by MSCI, many now consider South Korea a developed country. Much of the private sector growth has been driven by a system of very large conglomerates. Many of these chaebol —such as Samsung, LG, and Hyundai – have been tremendously successful, but corporate governance concerns have dogged them as a result of their family-run structure. Like South Korea, Taiwan is heavily dependent on China as a trading partner. Its export-driven economy has expanded considerably in the last few decades. Recent growth, however, has not been as robust as some of its neighbours. Its GDP grew by just 1.5% in the twelve months through the end of the first quarter. Brazil’s wealth of natural resources has made it a substantial beneficiary of the past decade’s trend towards higher commodity prices. A big part of that trend has been the rapid growth of China, with its seemingly insatiable appetite for raw materials, as well as Malthusian concerns about the world running out of non-renewable resources. The concern right now is that with China slowing down and other parts of the world in recession, the demand for raw materials could fall considerably. Further muddying the picture is the rapid pace of new natural gas discoveries throughout the world, particularly in the United States. Indeed, Brazil’s growth has slowed considerably in recent periods. For the 12 months through the fourth quarter of 2012, its GDP growth rate was just 1.4%, less than that of the United States. Over the last 10 years, the MSCI Emerging Markets Index has produced annual returns of 15.08%, versus 7.16% for the MSCI World Index, which covers only developed market equities. Its price-to-earnings ratio was 12.2 at the end of April, up from its low of 7.1 in May 2009, and above its five year average of 11.4.

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Über den Autor

Alastair Kellett  Al Kellett is an ETF analyst with Morningstar Europe.

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