Rolle im Portfolio
The PowerShares EQQQ ETF provides equity exposure to the 100 largest non-financial securities listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. The ETF is best deployed as a core holding in a well diversified portfolio. Given the size of the US economy, the high correlation with international stock markets comes at no surprise; hence this fund’s benefits as diversifier within a broader equity allocation are limited. The index correlated 90% with the MSCI World Index and 80% with the STOXX Europe 600 Index over the last three years.
As the index is primarily invested in large caps, the ETF can be used to complement mid- and small-cap holdings within an existing portfolio.
Investors anticipating outperformance on the part of US equities, and the technology sector in particular, could utilise this ETF as a tactical tool to express their view. Furthermore, the ETF is suitable for investors preferring non-financial exposure in a well-diversified product, especially if the existing portfolio is already biased towards financials.
Fundamentale Analyse
The index this ETF tracks is largely dominated by the IT sector; thus overall returns will be mainly determined by its performance.
In spite of some weak economic data, IT spending has remained relatively strong over the past few years. However, austerity measures pursued by governments around the world may ultimately weigh on overall IT spending going forward. Recent earnings reports from major tech companies have shown weak Q4 2011 results. This weakness appears to be driven by weak end-market demand as a result of the noted slowdown of the global economy. Having said that, Morningstar’s equity analysts believe that chip inventories are quite lean throughout the supply chain and a small increase in end-market demand could lead to a pickup of new chip orders, with strong demand for smartphones potentially playing a key role. As the chip industry’s customers’ outlooks have improved over recent weeks, chipmakers expect Q1 sales to grow.
Recent economic data suggest that the US recovery is gaining traction. Jobless claims dropped to 352,000 mid January, the lowest in nearly four years. Unemployment in December dropped to its lowest level in almost three years as the economy added 200,000 jobs. The private sector created more jobs in 2011 than in each of the five previous years, hence unemployment rate dropped from 8.7% in November to 8.5% in December. The Fed is predicting an unemployment rate of 8.5% - 8.7% for 2012. In addition, inflation remained flat for a second consecutive month in December; market participants predicted a modest rise of 0.1%. Continuously low inflation could lead to further quantitative easing by the Fed to support the still weak economic recovery.
On the flipside, the US trade deficit widened slightly to $47.7bn in November, up from $43.2bn. However, a huge increase in petroleum imports and a decline in gold prices account for almost the entire deficit increase.
According to a study from McKinsey Global Institute, the financial-sector debt to GDP ratio in the US is back to levels last seen in 2000. Private sector debt continues to decline. However, two thirds of this reduction stems from the fact that households either have or are due to default on home loans and consumer debt. For example, about $254bn of mortgages are already in the foreclosure pipeline.
Historically low interest rates in the US are not expected to tick up anytime soon. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has stated that until long there is a period of sustained job creation, he cannot consider the recovery to be truly established. Meaning, despite lower inflation and some encouraging economic data, the job market is still too weak to risk a rate hike.
Going forward, continuously high unemployment and a weak housing market will continue to undermine consumer spending--which is the core driver of the US economy. This will also have a negative impact on the manufacturing, construction and retail sectors. Moreover, the presidential election in 2012 will likely prevent politicians from pushing some necessary reforms through Congress this year. The IMF predicts a slight pick up in real GDP growth in the US, from 1.5% in 2011 up to a forecast level of 1.8% in 2012.
Indexkonstruktion
The NASDAQ 100 Index provides equity exposure to the 100 largest non-financial securities listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market. It is a market capitalisation weighted index representing major industry groups, like computer hardware and software, telecommunications, retail/wholesale trade and biotechnology. The index is calculated under a modified capitalisation-weighted method with the intention to retain in general the economic attributes of capitalisation-weighting while providing enhanced diversification. In order to achieve its objective, the NASDAQ 100 Index is reviewed quarterly and adjusts the weightings of index constituents using a proprietary algorithm, if certain pre-established weight distribution requirements are not met. To be eligible for the index, component stocks must be listed on the Nasdaq Stock market and meet a list of criteria, like being a non-financial company, trading at least 200,000 shares a day and being listed on the stock market for at least two years. As of writing, the index is heavily biased towards the technology sector (60%), followed by health care (12%) and retail (10%). The largest index constituent is Apple, representing 12.2% of the index’s value, followed by Microsoft (8.5%) and Oracle (6.5%). The index is therefore heavily top weighted as the top 10 holdings represent about 50% of the index.
Fondskonstruktion
The PowerShares EQQQ Fund uses physical replication to track the performance of the NASDAQ-100 Index. In order to achieve its objective, the index intends to invest in all of the component stocks of the reference index in their respective weightings. PowerShares may engage in securities lending to generate additional revenues. The lending revenue generated can partially offset the TER. To protect the fund from the counterparty risk that results from this practice, PowerShares takes collateral greater than the loan value. Collateral levels vary but must be in excess of 102%, depending on the assets provided by the borrower as collateral. The fund may hold up to 20% of its NAV in securities from a single issuer in order to achieve his objectives. Under exceptional market conditions, the fund manager may invest up to 35% of the fund’s net assets in securities from a single issuer. In addition, the fund may also hold up to 10% of its NAV in other collective investments schemes. The fund may also invest in financial derivative instruments, including equivalent cash-settled instruments, dealt in on a regulated market. Moreover, the fund can deploy over-the-counter derivatives and invest up to 20% of its NAV in shares and/or debt securities issued by the same body in order to achieve its objective.
Gebühren
The fund levies a total expense ratio of 0.30%. This lies at the middle of the range of ETFs tracking the NASDAQ-100 Index.
Alternativen
As of writing, there are five alternative ETFs tracking the NASDAQ 100 Index. The largest in terms of total assets under management is the iShares NASDAQ-100 (DE) Index. iShares uses full replication to track the performance of the reference index and levies a total expense ratio of 0.32%.
Investors looking for a more diversified index providing exposure to US equities could consider using the iShares S&P 500 Index ETF to express their view. The S&P 500 Index’s largest sector exposure is IT (19.2%), followed by financials (14.1%) and energy (12.1%). The biggest single issuer exposure is Exxon Mobile (3.5%), followed by Apple (3.3%).
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