Analyse: Lyxor ETF Brazil (Ibovespa) A (EUR)

Eine weniger kopflastige Alternative zum MSCI Brazil. Wette auf die sechstgrößte Volkswirtschaft der Welt.

Alastair Kellett 30.03.2012

Rolle im Portfolio

The Lyxor ETF Brazil provides exposure to many of the biggest and most liquid components of the Brazilian equity universe. Brazil has seen remarkable growth over the last several decades, and now ranks as the world’s sixth largest economy. In turn, Brazilian equities have gone from fringe emerging market exposure to an increasingly important part of a globally balanced portfolio. The Bovespa Index is fairly well diversified by sector, but diversification at the company level is limited, with more than 50% of the index within the top 10 firms. Returns from Brazilian equities have been erratic, exhibiting annual volatility of almost 25% in the last 10 years. An investment like this therefore requires a lengthy time horizon and a strong stomach to handle the swings. Its correlation to other equity exposures does suggest some benefit as a diversifier. In the same time period it has shown correlation to the local-currency returns of the S&P 500 and the MSCI World Index of 71% and 74%, respectively.

Fundamentale Analyse

A key driver of growth for the Brazilian economy is energy. The country’s wealth of natural resources has made it a substantial beneficiary of the past decade’s trend towards higher commodity prices. A big part of that trend has been the rapid growth of China, with its seemingly insatiable appetite for raw materials, as well as Malthusian concerns about the world running out of non-renewable resources. The concern right now is that with China slowing down and other parts of the world in recession, the demand for raw materials could fall considerably. China’s growth fell to an annualised rate of 8.9% in the fourth quarter of 2011, and the Chinese government recently targeted a 7.5% figure for 2012. Brazil’s growth has also slowed considerably in recent periods. For the fourth quarter of 2011 its growth rate was a paltry 1.4%, less than that of the United States. Oil prices have generally been increasing of late as tensions around Iran grow. But Saudi Arabia recently issued a commitment to increase its production in order to remove some of the upward pressure on the commodity. Through a combination of their preferred and common shares, oil giant Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras (“Petrobras”) and Vale, a diversified mining company, make up the biggest chunks of the index. According to Morningstar equity analysts, Petrobras common stock is trading at a 17% discount to its fair value estimate, and Vale at a 14% discount. Long-term performance on Brazilian stocks, as measured by the local-currency returns on the Bovespa Index, has been extremely robust. Over the past 10 years the index has produced an annualised gain of 16.7%, far exceeding the gains on the S&P 500 or the MSCI World, which returned 4.2% and 3.5%, respectively, over the same period. It suffered sharp losses during the financial crisis, but its peak-to-trough drawdown of 49.6% was not much worse than that for many of the more developed markets. As measured on a similar benchmark, MSCI Brazil, the price-to-earnings ratio for Brazilian equities has rebounded from a low of 4.4 in June 2009 to 8.5 at the end of February 2012. That still puts it well below its five-year average of 12.0.

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Über den Autor

Alastair Kellett  Al Kellett is an ETF analyst with Morningstar Europe.

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